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Asteroid 2024 YR4 ‘Potential Earth Impact in 2032 Sparks Global Planetary Defense Response

Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hitting Earth 2032 Sparks Global Planetary Defense
Source by gettyimages

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was recently discovered but already set off the planetary defence mechanisms across the world, underlining how sensitive the global space agencies have become towards the NEO’s threats. It was found by an automated telescope in Chile on Dec. 27, 2024, and has a width of 100 meters. Follow-up observations have placed it high on the impact risk lists maintained by NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA), citing a 1.3 per cent chance of collision with the Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. The chances of the object making a direct hit on the earth are low, but its detection is significant in terms of future watch and emergency preparedness.

What Press Should Know About Torino Impact Hazard Scale

Asteroid is ranked a 3 on this Torino Impact Hazard Scale, a hazard ranking system developed specifically to assess the degree of threat presented by asteroids and comets to Earth. This ranking refers to heard of it close to home — more than 100 times the distance to the moon — with at least a 1% chance of hitting in the next 10 years, and something that should be considered carefully by astronomers. The scale covers 0 (no risk) to 10 (a catastrophic global collision). The only asteroid that previously received a higher ranking was Apophis way back in 2004, but Apophis was originally classified as a 4 before further observations clarified the asteroid would not pose a significant threat for many years to come.

Scientific Angle: What Could Happen If Something Actual Hits

Although asteroid 2024 YR4 does not compare to a planet-killer asteroid and is not nearly large enough to threaten extinction, it would still prove to be large enough at about 100 meters in diameter to cause the type of devastation seen at the site of the Tunguska event. Data from such industries also indicates that asteroids this size hit Earth every couple of thousand years on average and can destroy cities. For comparison, the asteroid that sealed the fate of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, impacting Chicxulub, was estimated to have been 10 to 15 kilometres in diameter.

Projected Damage Scenarios

Doomsday Effect: An asteroid this size hitting a heavily populated region could be expected to create mass casualties and infrastructure failure across the board. The energy release would be like multiple nuclear detonations.

Triggers Tsunami: In case of ocean impact by the asteroid the resulting tsunami is bound to inflict serious damage along the coast thus leading to wholesale destruction and losses on the economic scene that would flow across the globe.

Airburst: If, at atmospheric entry, the asteroid fragmented it may explode in the atmosphere: similar to that in 1908 Tunguska, Siberia that flattened ca. 2,000 km2 forest area.

Why planetary defence initiatives matter globally

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered, and with that discovery, the reaction has been instantaneous — by two of the world’s most significant response organizations:

The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN): Responsible for conducting further observations to improve measurements of the asteroid’s orbit and reduce the inherent uncertainties in orbital calculations.

The Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG): They would assist in developing possible responses, with or without being able to deflect it.

Possible Mitigation Strategies

Any of the above strategies can be taken in case further studies show that asteroid 2024 YR4 has a clear threat potential for Earth, according to its current technological capabilities. Space agencies are able to use several strategies to reduce the risk to life and property:

Kinetic Impact Deflection: A spacecraft is launched to collide with the asteroid so that its trajectory is just slightly changed to have it miss Earth. NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission proved that this is indeed a valid method.

Gravity tractor method: A spaceship flies near an asteroid to gently pull on it through gravity over time.

Nuclear Detonation: While in the last position of resorting, a nuclear explosion near the surface on the asteroid will possibly change or even fragmentate it into considerably smaller and dangerous pieces.

Challenges in Observing and Tracking Asteroid 2024 YR4

The asteroid is at present travelling outward from Earth on nearly a straight-line trajectory, making it hard to make an accurate orbit determination. In the next few months, scientists will fine-tune those calculations with powerful telescopes. Unless the threat of impact can be ruled out, 2024 YR4 is likely to remain on the watchlists of space agencies around the world until the asteroid returns in 2028 for further observation.

Conclusion: The Road Ahead

Asteroid 2024 YR4 serves as a timely reminder of the potential hazards that near-Earth objects pose. Although the chance of collision remains small, the fact that planetary defense protocols have been activated hints at a more sophisticated, concerted international effort to watch out for and do something about asteroid threats. In the years ahead, further scrutiny of these objects and advances in technology will keep making sure that Earth is kept safe from potential threats from space.

What do you think?

Written by Zane Michalle

Zane is a Viral Content Creator at UK Journal. She was previously working for Net worth and was a photojournalist at Mee Miya Productions.

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